Uganda has about 47,000 active soldiers and 10,000 reservists, while Kenya has about 24,000 and 1500 reservists. Thus, Uganda has twice as many soldiers as Kenya. 

That means each Kenyan soldier would fight two Ugandans in one-to-one combat. 

This would only be possible in asymmetrical warfare, such as between the USA and a small country like Uganda. 

Even Russia, which has the most tanks in the world, invaded Ukraine with 190,000 soldiers against Ukraine's 196,000.

Additionally, this war did not go as planned, and Russia had to call in another 300,000 soldiers to overwhelm Ukraine. 

So if you think that 24,000 Kenyan soldiers can defeat 57,000 Ugandan soldiers, think again. 

Or maybe you think that Kenya can defeat Uganda because it has better equipment? You couldn't be more wrong. 

This is because Uganda has more modern equipment and defeats Kenya in numbers.

Let’s start with the Air Force because it is the most significant at the start of the war. 

Every war between two countries begins with the deployment of fighter jets to knock out important targets such as airfields, military bases, roads and bridges, air defenses, and advancing troops. 

However, Uganda’s fighter jets are better than Kenya’s. 

Uganda operates Russian-made Sukhoi SU30MKK or Flanker G by NATO, incorporating advanced avionics from the Russian more advanced fighter Sukhoi 57.

Sukhoi SU30 was developed by Russia in partnership with India, giving rise to the Sukhoi SU30 MKI, operated by the Indian Airforce, and Su30MKK, operated by China, Uganda, Indonesia, Venezuela, and Vietnam.

Sukhoi SU30 was the successor of the Russian Sukhoi SU27, the direct challenger of the USA’s McDonnell Douglas F15 Fighting Falcon.

In turn, the USA developed the F15 as a replacement for the F-14 Tomcat, which replaced the Northrop F-4 Phantom, which was of the same era as the Northrop F-5 fielded by Kenya.  

Based on this analysis, Kenya Air Force’s main fighter, the F-5 Tiger, is at least four generations behind Uganda’s SU 30MKK. 

Compared by age, Kenya’s Northrop F-5 was developed in 1962 compared to Uganda’s Sukhoi Su30MKK, developed in 1997, a difference of 35 years.

It’s a “4th generation multi-role Air superiority fighter” that even the United States fears. 

Russia uses Sukhoi SU-34 and SU-57 as the main fighters, which are the upgraded version of Sukhoi Su30 that Uganda uses. 

Meanwhile, Kenya’s primary fighter jet is the second-generation Northrop F5 fighter, which was active in the 1970s. 

This junk belongs to a museum, not in the skies. The only significant country operating F5 as the main fighter jet is Iran, which is banned from buying newer jets.

So far, Kenya has six fighter jets, and Uganda has 5. 

However, one of Kenya’s F-5 crashed on its own, so KDF also has 5 F5s against UPDF's five latest fighter jets. 

Kenya’s F5 is more likely to kill Uganda soldiers with tetanus than bombing them. 

Additionally, Su-30 has beyond visual range (BVR) kits, meaning it can spot Kenya's F-5 flying tetanus coffins before they can see it. 

That means Uganda can deploy SU-30 along the border and knock out Kenya’s F5 before they even leave the airfield.

This is one of the areas where the global firepower index gets it wrong because although Kenya has many non-fighting jets, such as transport planes, general-purpose helicopters, trainers, and special missions, it fails to field a modern fighter jet. 

So Kenya ends up having more airplanes than Uganda in the global firepower index, although they cannot help it win air-to-air combat.

After fighter jets, tanks are the most important equipment of war. Nowadays, guns are rarely used in main combat, unless you're fighting some bandits in West Pokot. 

Even in Russia vs. Ukraine, most of the fighting is done using tanks and armored cars. 

However, Uganda has twice as many tanks as Kenya, 109 vs. 237. 

Similarly, Uganda has more armored vehicles than Kenya, 1056 vs. 959.

The only place Kenya beats Uganda is artillery, where Kenya has almost twice as much as Uganda, 80 vs. 41. 

This is commendable for Kenya because it also has more self-propelled artillery than Uganda, meaning it can advance quickly during the war.

However, most artillery alone cannot win wars because is more difficult to operate if there are twice as many tanks and soldiers and jet fighters in the field.

Additionally, artillery is good for light cars and preventing the advance of foot soldiers, not for tanks.

Also, artillery needs to be operated in safe areas to protect the crew and is easily taken out with counter-battery fire. 

Apart from tanks, fighter jets, and artillery, rockets are crucial in any war, especially against artillery and the concentration of vehicles and soldiers. 

Rockets allow the destruction of equipment, command posts, and supply lines far beyond the battlefront, crippling the enemy before they could reach the combat zone. 

However, Uganda has five times as many rockets as Kenya (5 vs. 26). This is a game changer because, with such huge differences, Uganda could barrage Kenya and destroy a lot of equipment without putting its soldier at risk.

Uganda operates the Russian/Soviet Grad 21 multiple rocket launchers and the RM-70 MRLs from the Czech Republic. 

Ugandan RM-70 MRLs from Czechia

Credits: Adam Hauner  Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0

The biggest advantage Kenya has is its economy. However, the difference in military spending between the two countries is minimal. 

For example, Kenya spends about 1.2 billion dollars while Uganda spends $900 million.

“Kenya’s GI ranking in Band D places it in the high-risk category for corruption in the defense and security sector,” the Defense Index writes.

“Kenya’s highest risk area is Operations, followed by Procurement, Financial, Political and Personnel."

So, Uganda's 900 million dollars could be better spent, as shown by UPDF’s equipment, than Kenya’s 1.2 billion dollars.

We also have a bigger external debt than Uganda, 29 billion dollars vs. 13 billion dollars. 

Kenya ranks ahead of Uganda in less significant areas such are transporters, trainers, population, gross spending, and purchasing power.

However, Uganda ranks better in more important areas such as tanks, air superiority, rockets, armored vehicles, and personnel.

Unless Kenya can use its economic might to bridge the gap at the start of the war, Uganda would definitely win the war under the current circumstances.